Iron ore started the week steady around $106-107 a ton, with Singapore futures linked to the TSI 62% CFR China index little changed after a choppy overnight session. The headline risk was fresh talk of tougher U.S.-China trade measures.
The market's anchor, however, was China itself: September imports hit a record 116.33 million tonnes, the fourth straight month above 100 million, and blast-furnace output last week stayed solid at roughly 2.42 million tonnes per day.
That combination -- record intake plus steady steel runs -- explains why prices climbed about 1-2% over the past week to the top of a familiar range.
The seaborne backdrop helps too. Capesize earnings are holding in the mid-$20,000s per day and the Baltic Dry Index is firm, signaling that logistics are not choking supply. In short: demand looks healthy, and ships are moving.
The story behind the story is China's balancing act. Beijing wants less wasteful steel capacity yet still needs construction and manufacturing to stabilize.
That produces a stop-start policy cadence: warnings about overcapacity one week, hints of support the next. Traders have learned to fade the noise and watch the mills.
Iron Ore Holds Momentum as Markets Eye Breakout
As long as furnaces keep running and ports keep clearing vessels, restocking continues -- even as property remains weak and geopolitical headlines flare.
Technically, the market has the wind at its back. On the four-hour chart, futures are hugging the upper Bollinger Band with a positive MACD and an RSI in the high-60s -- classic momentum behavior.
On the daily view, prices sit above clustered moving averages; the 106.8-107.0 zone is the near-term ceiling. A decisive close above it would mark a breakout; failure keeps prices range-bound between 105 and 107, with first support near 104.5-105.0.
One more subplot: silver is near record highs, a sign of global hedging that underscores the macro tension but doesn't set iron-ore prices.
For the day ahead, watch Chinese policy signals, the Singapore settlement versus that 106.8-107.0 lid, and fresh freight prints. Fundamentals argue the floor is firm; headlines will decide if the ceiling finally cracks.