Vanderbilt is clearly for real and has a legitimate chance to make a run at a College Football Playoff spot, but it still takes some getting used to seeing the Commodores as 2.5-point favorites against LSU.
In fact, according to CBS Sports, this is the first time the Commodores have been favored against LSU since 1948, and the first time they've been laying points against a ranked opponent since at least 1978.
That's a span of 176 games.
Is the market correct in making Vandy a favorite against the Bayou Bengals?
Let's try to answer that question below.
This is a pretty interesting game to handicap because the perceived strength of LSU coming into the season was its offense, while the defense was more of a question mark.
LSU has one of the preseason Heisman favorites, Garrett Nussmeier, at quarterback, a vaunted offensive line, and plenty of playmakers around them, but things just aren't clicking for whatever reason.
Bill Connelly's SP+ ranks LSU's offense as the 45th-best unit in the country, which is not surprising since the Tigers have not scored more than 23 points against an FBS opponent this season.
Interestingly, the defense has made those scores stick, holding five of their six opponents to 10 points or less.
The only team to cross that threshold against the Bayou Bengals was Ole Miss, which beat LSU, 24-19, on Sept. 27.
Vanderbilt's offense has been prolific for most of the season, but the Commodores struggled against Alabama, easily the best defense they've faced all season.
It's entirely possible that we've seen the peak from Vanderbilt's offense this season, while the opposite is true of LSU.
This unit is just too talented to continue sputtering along, and the Tigers should have a decent chance of making a dent this weekend against Vanderbilt's defense, which grades out as middling compared to the other Power 4 schools.
This game looks like a coin flip, so I'll buy the upside of LSU's offense to get us a cover.
The Play: LSU +2.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.