The U.S. Embassy in Jamaica has issued an urgent alert for all Americans on the island as Tropical Storm Melissa, which is already lashing the region with heavy rain and wind, is now forecast to rapidly intensify into a Major Hurricane and make a direct hit on the island.
In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has issued an official Hurricane Warning for the entire island of Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning is the highest possible alert and means that hurricane conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
This is not a minor storm. This is an extremely dangerous and severe weather event. If you are in Jamaica, you must take immediate and decisive action to protect yourself.
Here at Travel Off Path, we are monitoring this situation in real-time. The U.S. Embassy alert, which was already serious, has now been superseded by a dire forecast from the NHC.
As of the 11:00 AM EDT advisory on Saturday, October 25, Tropical Storm Melissa is located just south-southeast of Kingston, with maximum sustained winds already at a powerful 70 mph. The storm is forecast to undergo "rapid intensification" this weekend, becoming a hurricane by Saturday night and a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or higher) by Sunday.
The forecast track, which has a high degree of confidence, shows the center of this major hurricane passing directly over or just south of Jamaica. The storm's incredibly slow movement is a major part of the threat, as it will prolong the impacts over the island for a multi-day period.
The NHC and U.S. Embassy are warning of catastrophic impacts across the entire island. This storm presents a severe triple threat:
1. Catastrophic Rainfall and Landslides Melissa is expected to be a "major rainfall producer." The forecast calls for 8 to 14 inches of rain (200-350 mm) for eastern parishes, with some areas in Haiti and Jamaica potentially seeing staggering totals of up to 25 inches. This level of rain will cause widespread, dangerous flash flooding and devastating landslides in Jamaica's mountainous terrain.
2. Destructive, Catastrophic Wind A Category 3 hurricane brings sustained winds of over 111 mph. These winds will cause catastrophic damage to buildings, topple countless trees, and result in widespread and long-lasting power outages. Being outside will be unsurvivable. The NHC has warned that hurricane conditions are expected to begin by Sunday or Monday.
3. Devastating Storm Surge A major hurricane will also produce a severe storm surge, pushing the ocean inland and flooding all coastal areas. This includes resort properties, beaches, and coastal roads, making them exceptionally dangerous and impassable. The surge will be accompanied by large, destructive waves.
The situation is so severe that the U.S. Embassy in Kingston will close for all routine services on Monday, October 27, and will only be available for limited emergency services. All routine visa and American citizen service appointments have been canceled.
The U.S. government is urging all Americans in Jamaica to take the following actions IMMEDIATELY:
This is a severe event. The NHC is warning that "preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion."
For Travelers in Jamaica: Jamaican authorities are activating over 650 emergency shelters. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has urged the public to take this threat seriously and take all measures to protect themselves.
For Travelers with Upcoming Flights: All travel to Jamaica should be canceled. Airlines including JetBlue, Southwest, and United have already issued travel waivers for flights to Montego Bay (MBJ) and Kingston (KIN). Airports are activating emergency protocols and will close once the Hurricane Warning is in full effect. Check with your airline immediately to rebook or cancel your flight.