The Kansas City Chiefs have begun to remind everyone in the NFL just how scary they can be. Most of all, Patrick Mahomes and the offense have been rolling over the last month or so. Even in the loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars during that stretch, Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense showed sustainable tendencies.
Patrick Mahomes is currently the NFL's leader in total offensive touchdowns. Expand that stretch even further to his last five games, and as displayed by Jordan Schultz, Mahomes has completed 68.8 percent of his passes, thrown for 1,355 yards, and accounted for 14 total touchdowns with just one interception.
You can tell Mahomes is feeling it right now. The weapons around him are arguably his best supporting cast since Tyreek Hill was traded away. Meanwhile, Kansas City is beginning to dominate and win games by multiple scores as they become more dangerous, which is a breath of fresh air after so many one-score games last season.
Due to the heightened play of Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, the betting odds have swung in the K.C. signal-caller's favor. In terms of the NFL MVP award, he is the betting favorite as of now.
Both FanDuel and DraftKings list Mahomes at +125 odds to win NFL MVP. That's a clear gap compared to the second name on the list, Josh Allen. Allen is listed at +350 on FanDuel and +360 on DraftKings. Part of the reason those two are the top two favorites is due to how betting markets likely view those quarterbacks -- and their teams -- over the remaining portion of the season.
Sure, some of what Mahomes has done recently is baked into that. However, other quarterbacks who have started the season strongly are much farther down the list. Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott have easily shouldered the load for their respective teams so far. Yet neither quarterback holds odds better than +2000 currently.
DraftKings lists Prescott at +2000 to win NFL MVP and Jones at +2500. Meanwhile, FanDuel has the exact same odds on both, with each sitting at +2200.
Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield are directly behind Allen on each sportsbook. The order is slightly different depending on where you look. DraftKings lists Mayfield (+700) just ahead of Maye (+800). However, FanDuel gives Maye (+700) the edge over Mayfield (+900).
To see this much of a gap between Mahomes and Allen for the betting favorite is fairly astonishing. We usually see those odds stay tighter through the first seven weeks. Granted, the Bills have lost two games in a row, and Allen has turned the ball over more often, throwing three interceptions over those two losses.
The Chiefs are playing at a 2018 level right now offensively. That is evidenced by the percentage of drives that have resulted in a score for Kansas City. The K.C. defense is nowhere near as dreadful as it was in that 2018 campaign. But clearly, the Kansas City defense has cost the Chiefs in two of their three losses so far.
Mahomes is playing loose, confident, and is trusting his eyes and pass catchers more than he did the last two years. He is consistently making smart decisions with the ball. And more importantly, he is continuing to push the pace downfield -- a stated goal of his for 2025.
If Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to get hotter, the Kansas City quarterback could begin to run away with a clear edge toward his third career NFL MVP award.