Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts (-1): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
If the Cardinals rebound off that horrific loss, a drama-filled week, possibly have to start Jacoby Brissett over an injured Kyler Murray, and go into Indy to beat this rolling Colts team, well, then I get what I deserve by betting on the NFL. I'm not seeing it happen though, not with how dominant the Colts have been against weak competition, rolling the 3 bad opponents on their schedule so far by 25, 21, and 34 points. That has made them the best offense by both EPA/play and success rate, so a banged-up and weak Arizona defense won't be able to slow them down. Being able to tease Indy to just win makes me feel pretty comfortable, just need to avoid a chaos carryover from last week.
LA Rams (-1) @ Baltimore Ravens: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Speaking of carrying over from last week, I'm expecting both teams here to have last week's respective disasters impact this game. Primarily that means the Rams atoning for their bad loss at home to the San Francisco practice squad, and they'll have another depleted opponent here to take out their frustrations. I just don't see Baltimore stopping anything with their MASH unit of a defense that is now 30th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate allowed. I'm also counting on an insane trend to continue here, with Sean McVay 16-0 SU as a road favorite of more than 4 points, including going 15-0-1 on a 6-point teaser. If the Rams play angry and the Ravens continue to look lost defensively and offensively without Lamar, LA will get back in the win column.
Dallas Cowboys/Carolina Panthers Over 42.5: 12:00 PM CT on FOX
I said last week that Cowboys games were automatic overs until further notice, and that notice hasn't come yet. All five games for Dallas getting over this total is comforting, as is the fact that Carolina is at home in this one. I'm convinced that the Panthers are a completely different team, and Bryce Young a completely different quarterback, when playing at home, evidenced by them putting up 30 and 27 points in their two home games. Those have come against weak defenses, which is still what the Cowboys have, so they should be able to keep pace with a Cowboys offense that has looked surprisingly competent in their outdoor games.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5): 3:25 PM CT on CBS
I'm usually pretty adherent to the rule that you shouldn't tease through zero, but this game represents a special case. The Bucs are the poster child for tight games in a season that has seen the most one-score games through 5 weeks all time. Tampa is seemingly either going to win this game by a field goal or lose it by a field goal, so being able to get a field goal plus the hook with them is good value in my opinion based on how they play. The 49ers will be competitive here as we've seen with Mac Jones filling in, but Baker Mayfield Magic will have them in this game down to the wire, and I think this one gets decided by a late kick.
Detroit Lions/KC Chiefs Over 45.5: 7:20 PM CT on NBC
The Lions have some problems in this game, but they won't be on the offensive side of the ball. This Detroit offense has not missed a beat after their Week 1 dud, averaging 38.0 PPG in the four games since. There is no reason they can't keep that up against a KC defense that has not played at last season's level, and is average to below-average by most metrics. But Detroit's problems will be on defense, where they're dealing with injuries to essentially their whole secondary. If ever there was a time for Patrick Mahomes to do Patrick Mahomes things, this is it against a thin defense in a bounce-back game. I can't help but think back to the first time Goff and Mahomes met back in 2018, an insane 54-51 game on Monday night football, which is a tall order tonight but I still think we see a shootout here.
NFL (1 Unit) LA Rams Team Total Over 27 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
Things are getting worse not better for the Ravens, and at 1-4 they're in danger of just quitting on the season. They haven't been able to stop any offense not named Cleveland, allowing 41, 38, 37, and 44 points in their other games. Giving up 44 last week to a Texans team that couldn't score at all to start the year might be rock bottom, but even a significant bounce back still leaves this total as one that's fairly easy to clear. Especially if the Rams are playing angry as I expect them to, and they should try to build an insurmountable lead after tough losses in 2 of their past 3 games. If LA, with one of the league's best passing offenses, keeps the pedal down for the majority of the game, Baltimore will have no hope to keep them below a number like this.