The trade war with China has been tough on Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) investors. Last month, shares hit a year-to-date low below $87 apiece. Like its fellow Magnificent 7 members, Nvidia has struggled due to economic uncertainties about the effects of tariffs, as well as due to Chinese AI innovations. Bears see Nvidia stock falling further due to bearish pressure from the broader market. Yet, some investors remain optimistic for a sustained rebound in the coming months. Perhaps even a revisit to all-time highs if tariff fears dissipate and macro data gets better.
The bearish argument has mostly won out on Wall Street so far this year. While the AI rally can return if things improve, it remains speculative, whereas the reasons for Nvidia stock's decline are genuine.
Nvidia is at a true crossroads right now. We do not know for sure where the stock will go next, but with the data on hand, we can speculate. That's what we are doing here.
Three Key Drivers of Nvidia Performance Through 2030
1. AI Infrastructure Dominance: Nvidia controls an estimated 80% of the AI accelerator market through its H100/H200 GPUs and CUDA software ecosystem. It is tough for Nvidia customers to switch to another supplier, and this has allowed it to dominate the industry, with customers coming for more year after year. As such, it is well-positioned to capture growth from the $400 billion AI chip market projected for 2030.
2. Data Center Expansion: Its data center revenue has surged from $4.3 billion in Q1 2023 to over $35.6 billion in Q4 2024. Maintaining leadership here requires continuous innovation in GPU architecture and energy efficiency as AI workloads grow exponentially. So far, Nvidia has managed to do that.
3. Margin Preservation: One of the biggest arguments against Nvidia is that it may not be able to hold on to its massive margins as competitors catch up and become more attractive to Nvidia's customers. This has yet to happen, and Nvidia has been able to defend its hold on the market quite well. In turn, this has allowed the company to have industry-leading gross margins at 73% in Q4 FY2025.
Nvidia Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Bear, & Baseline
24/7 Wall St. estimates that Nvidia's stock price in 2030 will be $491 per share in our bull case, $362 in our base case, and $38 in our bear case. That would be up 269.6%, up 172.5%, and down 71.4%, respectively. Each of these estimates comes from a specific scenario analysis of Nvidia's business segments.
All things considered, $491 per share is possible, with around $240 billion in net income if all that revenue materializes and margins hold up. Investors will still have to pay a 50x TTM earnings multiple for the stock. The market cap would be $12 trillion.
The likelihood of this happening is quite low due to the amount of ground Nvidia would have to cover.
Nvidia's valuation for the base case would be $8.9 trillion. I strongly recommend reading this share price forecast for a more detailed analysis of our base case.
The Bear Case for Nvidia's Share Price
You may have noticed that there is a big gap between the base case and the bear case, and this is mostly because the bear case assumes that the AI narrative would fail.
If that happens, the result would be catastrophic for Nvidia and its stock. The only reason the shares trade at such a high valuation is that the company is directly linked to AI and its prospects. Without it, it will return to being known as a gaming GPU company with some links to crypto mining.
Obviously, that will not happen. AI demand is not going to disappear overnight. However, what can happen is that AI development could slow down. As a result, Nvidia would slow down too. It needs continuous orders from hyperscalers and AI startups to maintain its momentum and strong margins. If AI slows down and companies are no longer willing to run massive AI models at a loss, they're also unlikely to upgrade their GPUs to whatever Nvidia has to offer. This would crush Nvidia's margins and turn revenue growth red, and investors would no longer pay a growth premium for the stock. $38 for such a scenario is reasonable, if not a bit rich, considering that would still leave Nvidia with a $932 billion valuation.