Summit copped out on climate action faced by 'axis of obstruction', reports Ian Taylor
The failure to agree binding targets on reducing fossil fuel use and increasing funding for adaptation to warming at the COP30 climate conference in Brazil which closed on the weekend of November 22 was no surprise.
But it means no long-term let-up in the increasing climate extremes in destinations and disruption, deadly consequences and costs of heatwaves, wildfires, floods and droughts.
COP30 ended with a voluntary agreement to curb fossil fuel use, an aspiration to triple funding available for adaptation in developing countries and vague commitments to "strengthen" climate targets.
However, the 2035 date for tripling adaptation finance was five years later than initially proposed and the 'agreement' provides no baseline year for comparison.
This latest target comes after COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 agreed adaptation funding of $40 billion a year by 2025.
Yet a recent UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report revealed developed nations provided $26 billion in adaptation finance in 2023, down from $28 billion in 2022. UNEP estimates the adaptation costs required at $310 billion a year between now and 2035.
The COP30 outcome aims to keep "within reach" the 2015 Paris agreement to limit warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. But the final summit statement noted the "carbon budget" for this is "being rapidly depleted" and the limit will likely be "overshot".
The statement did not even mention fossil fuels directly - in keeping with the fact that the US, the greatest source of emissions per person, was not at COP30 with President Trump having declared global warming a "con job".
It merely restated a voluntary agreement, made two years ago, to transition from coal, oil and gas by 2050.
The summit also failed to reach agreement on climate science, failing to endorse the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the "best available science" and failing even to mention the latest findings on the world's climate presented by the IPCC and World Meteorological Organisation.
The UK delegation expressed "deep concern" at this failure "to capture vital scientific observations of the state of the climate".
The business newspaper the Financial Times reported an "axis of obstruction", led by oil-producers Saudi Arabia and Russia, stalled progress and described countries pushing for agreement on action as "isolated".
Fernanda Carvalho, head of climate and energy policy at conservation body WWF, described the outcome as reflecting the "lowest common denominator".
COP31 will be held in Turkey, but with Australia overseeing negotiations following a failure even to agree on the next presidency.
The UN estimates countries' current climate plans - or 'nationally determined contributions (NDCs) - will lead to 2.5C warming. However, COP30 merely agreed to "continue talking" about the gap between these targets and what is needed.
The outcome ignored the climate scientists who made clear at COP30 that emissions must be cut immediately and fall steadily "to have a chance to avoid unmanageable climate impacts".