Christmas Day's Week 17 action will start with a battle of AFC playoff teams.
The (14-1) Kansas City Chiefs are on the road to play the (10-5) Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Kickoff is set for noon Arrowhead Time on Netflix, KCTV/5 in Kansas City and KDKA/2 in Pittsburgh.
A Kansas City win would wrap up home-field advantage throughout the postseason, setting up a potential rest period of at least 23 days for key players like quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and defensive tackle Chris Jones -- who was limited in Tuesday's practice with a calf injury.
The Chiefs will need to overcome a short-week road trip -- and a Steelers team that badly needs a win to stay on top of the AFC North.
That one play can be chalked up to Houston's great execution, too.
Regardless of the status of veteran left tackle D.J. Humphries -- who has not practiced since his hamstring injury -- Saturday's clean effort needs to be duplicated against a Steelers defense that ranks second in quarterback knockdown rate (12%). Outside linebacker T.J. Watt has 11.5 sacks and leads the NFL in both tackles-for-loss (18) and forced fumbles (6).
The All-Pro edge rusher almost exclusively plays against the right side of the offensive formation -- which is a vulnerable spot because starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been limited in this week's practices with a knee injury.
The Chiefs will need to have eyes (and hands) on Watt -- and also keep track of defensive lineman Cameron Heyward on the inside. Edge rushers Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig are also legitimate threats from the left edge. That trio has combined for 18.5 sacks and five forced fumbles this year.
The best way to avoid the pass rush is to get rid of the ball quickly. That was the theme against Houston, when Mahomes recorded his lowest average time to throw of the season (2.5 seconds).
The progression of Kansas City's receiving corps is the primary reason this was possible. Rookie Xaiver Worthy arguably had his best game on Saturday, racking up a career-high 61 yards after the catch over seven catches; each catch was made after fewer than 10 air yards.
But it wasn't just Worthy's continuing progression. Hollywood Brown's return from injury opened things up for the entire passing attack -- and Mahomes trusted him instantly. Brown ran the team's seventh-most routes (14) but ended with the second-most targets (8).
The offense will continue using that duo's speed to stretch coverage thin. When the explosiveness gets blanketed, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has been a safety valve on the outside. He will face a Steelers cornerback group that is missing its top player: Joey Porter Jr. is out with a knee injury.
The Chiefs' defense will continue to focus on limiting explosive plays. The Pittsburgh offense lives on long completions -- which will be especially true with star wideout George Pickens returning from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three weeks.
Before that, he played six games with starting quarterback Russell Wilson. In that stretch, only one NFL starter averaged more passing yards per attempt (8.7) than Wilson. Weeks 7-13 featured Pickens making big plays: on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield, he led the league in catches, yards and first downs earned.
The Chiefs' cornerbacks will need to combat Pickens' ability to finish contested catches. The Steelers can also throw to the big-bodied former Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams. This battle outside the numbers will be a key for the Kansas City defense.
In Saturday's game, Jones left the field after tweaking his calf. With the postseason on the horizon, it may not be worth pushing the team's best defender through an injury that can absolutely worsen with activity.
That may slow the momentum the pass rush has gained since defensive end Charles Omenihu returned from injury -- but it also presents an important test for complimentary players to step up. On average, Wilson has been sacked on 8.2% of his dropbacks -- the league's tenth-highest rate.
Wilson will make pass rushers work to finish sacks, but pressure can still succeed by disrupting his rhythm and forcing him out of structure. On dropbacks lasting longer than 2.5 seconds, Wilson completes only 58% of his passes; three of his four interceptions have come in those situations.
Recently, the Kansas City defense has been great on third down, pushing the season-long conversion rate to 51%. The league-leading mark is also the team's highest percentage since 2021.
Those situations will be challenged by a veteran Pittsburgh defense that allows third-down conversions at the league's fifth-lowest rate (35%). The Steelers also have playmakers over the middle -- like safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and linebacker Patrick Queen -- who can blow up some of the Chiefs' go-to strategies to move the chains or finish a red-zone possession.
On the flip side, the Kansas City defense will face a Steelers' offense that ranks 30th in red-zone conversion rate. Pittsburgh has struggled to work in condensed space, so the Chiefs' linebackers and safeties will play a big part in continuing that trend. But they will have to do it without nickel safety Chamarri Conner, who is out for Wednesday's game with a concussion.