Nick Durand has been a Michigan football beat writer for Maize n Brew since 2023, covering games, press conferences and more.
We're about 100 days away from Michigan's first game of the 2025 season. While some might think it's too early to start ranking teams, ESPN and Bill Connelly released their newest offseason SP+ rankings on Thursday. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Wolverines are ranked rather highly in the top-10.
For those of you who might be unfamiliar with SP+, Connelly describes it as, "A tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking." SP+ takes into account a team's efficiencies on offense, defense, and special teams to form one metric that can be used to predict how many points a given team would beat (or lose to) the "average" college football team by on a neutral field.
In Michigan's case, the Wolverines are ranked as the No. 10 team in the country with an SP+ rating of 21.5. In other words, SP+ predicts Michigan should defeat the "average" team by 21.5 points on a neutral field.
Since it's the offseason and there is no game data to go off of, Connelly mentions preseason rankings are determined by three things: returning production, recent recruiting success and recent history.
Based on that, it makes sense Michigan is getting this much love in the rankings. For starters, Michigan is bringing in one of the nation's best recruiting classes in 2025, headlined by five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood. While it's unclear how much of an impact the freshmen will have this season, the added talent raises the floor of the roster as a whole.
Additionally, Michigan should rank favorably for its recent history, as the program has been to the College Football Playoff and won the Big Ten in three of the last four seasons. Understandably, Michigan was likely dinged a bit for losing some returning production, particularly on defense with guys like Will Johnson, Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant now in the NFL.
As for the Big Ten as a whole, Michigan is the fourth-highest ranked team, as Ohio State (No. 1), Penn State (No. 3) and Oregon (No. 7) are all inside the top-10 as well. Connelly also notes the Big Ten is the second-best conference by average SP+ rating with a mark of 9.5. Unsurprisingly, the SEC is ranked as the best with a 15.3 mark.
Another interesting nugget from Connelly's piece is the Wolverines are the fourth most likely team in the Big Ten to finish with a 10-2 record or better in the regular season. He gives this a 62 percent chance of happening.
Looking ahead to Michigan's first game of the season, Connelly has New Mexico as the No. 130 team in the country with a rating of -18.4, meaning Michigan should be favored by nearly 40 points on a neutral field as of right now.