"The time is a quarter to midnight." Norman Borlaug, 1914-2009.
Borlaug, the father of the Green Revolution and Nobel Prize Winner in Agriculture in 1970 opened his address while receiving the prestigious award with those words.
It catalysed governments globally to take the issue of food security seriously.
Nigeria briefly embraced it when late Shehu Shagari and Ibrahim Babangida were civilian and military Heads of State respectively.
From 1979 to 1983, and again from 1985 to 1993, Nigeria moved towards sustainable food security. Since 1994, the country has been receding in the march towards self-sufficiency.
Among the disasters which befell the nation from 2015 to 2023, the Buhari years, was the steady decline in aggregate food production and per capita yield - despite the N1 trillion wasted on the Anchor Borrowers Programme, ABP.
It was a lot of precious money thrown down a cesspool of corruption. None of the twelve crops, especially rice and cotton, has improved.
On the contrary, reports on both crops indicate serious and steady decline in output.
Who can forget the rice pyramids; in front of which stood Buhari, Osinbajo, Emefiele, the now forgotten Minister of Agriculture and the President of the Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria, RIFAN?
If ever there was ever an agricultural policy and programme designed to fail ABP was it.
Consequently, a little over two years after President Buhari and Central Bank Governor, Emefiele, left office, the nation is more food insecure than ever before.
My recent visits to Niger and Sokoto States, two food baskets, and Ogun State around the Ofada rice growing zone was an eye-opener in many respects. We are in trouble regarding food production in general, but particularly rice.
As it turned out, I was not the only one concerned about the looming food crisis.
A report in the Weekend edition of Trust newspaper, August 23 and 24, 2025 offers a more detailed account of the impending rice crisis.
Rice Is National Metric For Domestic Food Production.
"Bread is the staff of life" in most advanced countries; but, not in Nigeria - where rice is the most consumed grain.
Borlaug's work had focused on increasing the global yield of the three most important grains providing 70 percent of mankind's energy intake - wheat, rice and corn.
Other crops have benefited from the scientific insights which improved global yield by more than 2000% since the Green Revolution became a reality.
That quantum leap in productivity had been largely responsible for keeping mass starvation and malnutrition at bay for the vast majority of the world's population.
Unfortunately, African governments, in general, and Nigeria, in particular, have been left behind in the struggle to feed their people.
No single crop symbolises this continental failure more than rice production.
My visit to General Babangida two weeks ago provided me with an opportunity to re-visit once again, three former factors, still alive, who live in Zungeru, the birth place of late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe.
They were the backbones of the out-growers' scheme in Niger state which helped to keep our rice mill - Haske Rice Mill, Sokoto - situated on Kalambina Road and sharing a fence with Sokoto Cement going.
They remain involved in rice business - despite advancing age and fragile health.
Before reaching Zungeru, I already knew the answer to the main question: what is the outlook for rice production this year?
From Dikko, off the Abuja-Kaduna expressway, to Minna; and from Minna to Zungeru, the signs of setback were everywhere and in everything are inescapable. Even minor crops - okro, green vegetables etc - which were thrown on the road side after excess production, were scarce at village markets. Rice which requires special care was definitely in trouble.
My worst fears were confirmed on arrival. Rice farmers have either changed to other crops or have abandoned the farm altogether.
Instead of trying to re-invent the wheel, so to speak, permit me to bring to the readers of Vanguard what the regular readers of the Daily Trust already know.
Why Rice Insufficiency Is Unavoidable This Year.
"Rice mills collapsing".
That was the title of the Weekend Trust; and it reminded me of how my life suddenly changed in March 1990.
Up to that time, I was managing the most modern, largest in Africa and almost totally-automated rice mill in Sokoto.
The unexpected death of my eldest brother, before 60, meant I became the head of a large extended family at the age of 46 and the only Trustee of the estate.
My dreams of becoming known as the biggest rice producer in Africa vanished in one day.
But, not before two years of working fourteen hours a day - sometimes including Sundays - to get involved in every aspect of the rice business.
At the risk of sounding immodest, my engagements included working with the researchers at the International Rice Research Institute, IRRI, at Badeggi, Niger State, all the managers of River Basin Authorities in Nigeria, developing a network of out-growers numbering over 50,000 small scale farmers organized under agents in nineteen states; engaging over 300 transporters and 250 rice dealers.
We also ran our own farms at the dam site near Talata Mafara, Sokoto State and the wetlands at Yelwa Yauri, Kebbi.
The rice-growing area in Nigeria unknown to me did not exist. The collaboration with IRRI resulted in the development of eight rice varieties for the six zones of Nigeria; as well as the correct inputs of fertilizers, herbicides and fungicides for each zone.
Finally, I was one of the drafters of the proposal for the construction of the Goronyo dam in Sokoto which turned the desert into an agricultural powerhouse in Nigeria and a major rice producer.
Prior to that, I had been involved in the attempt to establish a 10,000 hectare farm from virgin land when the Buhari government demanded that food and beverage manufacturers must compulsorily go into farming from 1984.
Obviously, despite being a "Lagos Boy", I know a lot more about farming than most people born in rural areas.
I travel to rural areas everywhere as a professional farmer knowing what to look for. What is happening in Nigeria's farmland right now is deeply concerning.
Here are the most important reasons for food security pessimism. Credit for the summary goes to the staff of Weekend Trust.
Reasons For Pessimism
"Imports, smuggling take over".
Before you start assigning blame to anyone, kindly remember how we got into this predicament.
First, "importation of rice rose from 7000 tonnes in 1960 to 2.2 million tones by 2024, according to data from the Food and Agricultural Organisation, FAO and CBN."
Two, it is "projected that the production of paddy in Nigeria would reduce from 10 million metric tones in 2018 to 4 million metric tonnes in 2025."
Tinubu has a monumental problem on his hands; so do we.
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