UAE: Brace for unstable weather, thunderstorms this long weekend, NCM warns


UAE: Brace for unstable weather, thunderstorms this long weekend, NCM warns

Anyone planning to travel around or drive across the UAE during the long weekend should be prepared for sudden weather shifts -- with Abu Dhabi in particular expected to see unstable conditions.

The country's weather department has forecast rainfall and thunderstorms in the Capital, warning residents and motorists of shifting weather patterns that may bring sudden changes.

On Wednesday evening, Dubai's Margham area was lashed by heavy thunderstorms, lightning, and hail. The severe weather coincided with light showers in Al Ain, creating dusty conditions that reduced visibility across several parts of the city. On Thursday, visuals surfaced showing overcast skies and heavy rain near Al Maktoum Airport. The videos captured vehicles making their way through a downpour along the Emirates Road near the airport.

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The National Center of Meteorology (NCM) had issued multiple alerts about continued thunderstorms, strong winds, and potential flash floods, particularly in the country's southwestern regions.

In an exclusive interview with Khaleej Times on Thursday, NCM meteorologist Dr Ahmed Habib explained how the situation is evolving.

"This afternoon, convective clouds were detected between Al Ain and Dubai, and by Friday, this activity is likely to extend towards Abu Dhabi and the Al Dhafra region. These areas could see rainfall along with thunderstorm activity."

He added that weather activity was not limited to land alone. "This morning (Thursday), strong convective clouds were also observed over the sea between the UAE and Qatar, and around Abu Dhabi's islands."

Dr Habib pointed out that the current conditions are linked to a powerful low-pressure system.

"We are experiencing low pressure in both the surface and upper layers over the western parts of the UAE. This system draws in water vapour from the Arabian Sea and the Oman Sea. When heated during the day, it creates strong upward motion (updrafts), leading to condensation and the formation of convective clouds, which eventually bring rainfall to scattered parts of the country."

He clarified that while the Indian monsoon often influences UAE weather, this time the primary driver is different.

"Normally, the Indian monsoon is a surface-level thermal low (comparatively shallow disturbances), but now we are seeing a deep low-pressure system that extends into the upper atmosphere. This upper-level low is what's driving instability in our region."

The UAE is also on the brink of seasonal change, moving from summer towards autumn -- a period known for its dramatic weather fluctuations.

"Autumn will officially begin on September 22. We are now at the tail end of summer, gradually moving towards cooler conditions. This transition brings a noticeable change in weather, shifting from stable to unstable at times. Both autumn and spring share this characteristic of fluctuating conditions, but the difference is that autumn marks a shift from hot to cold."

Dr Habib warned that such changes can play out within hours, leaving residents surprised. "Residents may enjoy stable weather today, only to find that the next day brings swift shifts to unstable conditions. This can result in sudden cloud cover and rain following a dry day."

He noted that these transitional weeks often produce heavy rainfall, hail, and even dust storms on the same day.

"During this transitional period, we often observe convective cloud formation, which can result in heavy rainfall, sometimes even hail. Within a single day, weather conditions can swing dramatically -- it may start getting foggy or hazy in the morning, only to bring heavy rain, thunder, or dust storms by the afternoon or night. This is the typical pattern when moving from summer to winter."

According to Dr Habib, the difference between daytime heat and cooler night time conditions is further fuelling the instability.

"During the day, the air mass heats up significantly, while at night cooler air from the sea moves inland. This contrast between hot daytime and relatively cooler night time conditions creates instability, which is why we are witnessing such rapid shifts in weather."

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