There's an elegant political theory that goes a long way toward explaining certain patterns in elections. It goes like this: Daffy Duck, the spluttering, cranky, strained and frustrated brawler will always lose to Bugs Bunny, the cool and composed duelist who's always a step ahead.
The theory was first articulated in a 2008 Slate article by Jeff Greenfield (today he's the chief political correspondent for CBS News). He was talking about then-senator Hillary Clinton, who Greenfield described as slugging her way through the Democratic primary with "grim determination" against her more savvy fellow senator, Barack Obama. At the very start of 2008 as Clinton was throwing aides overboard amid infighting and spending problems, Obama was giving his first "Yes We Can" speech, rocketing him upwards in the polls. By February, he had overtaken Clinton. A few months later he beat John McCain, another perennial Daffy, for the presidency.