Seeking a bounce-back win with the margin for error to win the NFC West now razor thin, the Seattle Seahawks will host the upstart Minnesota Vikings in a critical regular season home finale choked full of playoff ramifications for both teams.
Unable to seize the moment in prime time, a slow start on both sides of the football doomed Seattle in a 31-13 loss to Green Bay, dropping coach Mike Macdonald's squad out of first place in the division with only three games remaining. As for Minnesota, the NFC North front runners took out Chicago for an easy Monday night victory to improve to 12-2, remaining in the mix for not only a division title, but the top seed and a first round bye.
Which matchups will determine who snags a crucial Week 16 win? Here are six positional battles to keep an eye on as the Seahawks and Vikings spar at Lumen Field:
--Seahawks receivers DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett versus Vikings cornerbacks Shaq Griffin, Stephon Gilmore, and Byron Murphy: The Vikings have allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL this season, but they have been vulnerable giving up chunk plays in coverage, allowing 46 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the ninth-most in the league. Though Week 16, while he has picked off six passes, Murphy has given up 623 yards in coverage, the fifth-most among cornerbacks this season. Griffin, a former Seahawks draft pick, has been susceptible to getting beat downfield, yielding 14.7 yards per reception on 23 catches. Before missing a couple games with an injury, Gilmore yielded a 66 percent completion rate and three touchdowns, getting exposed more in the quick passing game and allowing yardage after the catch.
Most notably, per Pro Football Focus, Minnesota has allowed more yardage to outside receivers than any other team in the NFL. That should open the door for Metcalf, who hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 4 and only had three targets last weekend against Green Bay, to get back on track, as he ranks fifth among receivers in yardage on the outside. He also has a history of success against both Griffin and Gilmore, catching touchdowns against each of them in previous matchups. Out of the nickel spot, Murphy has picked off three passes, but he also has allowed 33 catches on 43 targets for 341 yards, creating an interesting one-on-one battle against Smith-Njigba, who leads the league in receptions and receiving yards from the slot.
--Seahawks defensive tackles Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and Byron Murphy versus Vikings guards Dalton Risner and Blake Brandel, center Garrett Bradbury: The Vikings have generally done a solid job protecting quarterback Sam Darnold this season, but when opponents have had success getting after him in the pocket, much of the pressure has come from the interior. In his first season as a full-time starter, Brendel has surrendered 28 pressures and six sacks, tied for the second-most among guards in the NFL this year, and his 96.6 percent pass block efficiency rate ranks 47th out of 61 qualified guards. Ed Ingram had been even worse in that category while yielding five sacks, leading to him being benched in favor of Risner late last month. Bradbury has been arguably the worst pass protecting center in football as well, allowing a league-worst 31 pressures and three sacks.
On the opposite side of the trenches, few teams have had a more balanced attack in the interior defensive line than the Seahawks, starting with the ever-disruptive Williams, who ranks 11th in the NFL among defensive tackles in pressures and fifth in sacks. Not far behind him, Reed has racked up 37 pressures, good for 16th among interior defenders, while Murphy has added 17 in a rookie season that has been more productive than his numbers may illustrate. With all three players also being major contributors to the team's recent turnaround defending the run, this could potentially be a substantial strength for the home team, though Risner's addition to the lineup has offered an upgrade for the Vikings over the past five games.
--Seahawks running backs Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet versus Vikings linebackers Blake Cashman and Kamu Grugier-Hill: Enjoying a strong first season in the middle of Minnesota's defense, Cashman has been cash money against the run this year, tallying 15 run stops with only three missed tackles. But they have missed Ivan Pace Jr. since he landed on injured reserve after Week 9, as he had 18 run stops in the first nine games and played a crucial role in holding opponents to barely over 70 rushing yards per game during that span. Since jumping into the starting lineup in Pace's place, Grugier-Hill has been less reliable, posting a 20 percent missed tackle rate on 55 run defense snaps, though he has picked off two passes in coverage to offset those issues.
For most of the season, Seattle hasn't had a viable rushing attack, but even with Walker missing the past two games with a calf injury, Charbonnet has benefited from improved blocking in front of him, racking up 188 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Arizona and Green Bay. Interestingly, the team has ranked fifth in EPA per run play since Week 13, while Minnesota has plunged from being first in run defense EPA to 19th during the past three games. With Walker back in the lineup healthy and the Vikings proving to be more vulnerable against the rush as of late, Ryan Grubb should feed his pair of backs often. They also should be an instrumental part of the passing game plan as quick outlets for Geno Smith against the blitz with Cashman and Grugier-Hill yielding north of 11 yards per reception this season.
--Seahawks cornerbacks Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, and Josh Jobe versus Vikings receivers Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor: Joining truly exclusive company, Jefferson recently became the first player in NFL history to hit 7,000 receiving yards in his first five seasons, and he's once again surpassed 1,200 receiving yards with eight touchdowns as Sam Darnold's primary weapon. But this isn't a one-man wrecking crew as it once was, as Addison has already reached 771 yards and seven receiving touchdowns while Nailor has pitched in 275 yards and five scores in his third season, giving the Vikings a fun trifecta of playmakers in the aerial attack that are all capable of doing damage creating explosive downfield receptions.
What makes Minnesota especially tricky to defend is that coach Kevin O'Connell moves all three of his top receivers all over the formation, including sliding Jefferson into the slot on a frequent basis. Jefferson has 25 receptions and four touchdowns from the slot this year, while Addison and Nailor have 17 and 14 catches respectively working from inside. This will present Seattle with a potential dilemma in coverage deciding whether to move Witherspoon or Woolen with Jefferson or play straight up with Woolen on the left side and Jobe on the right side regardless of where the superstar lines up, and what they choose to do could have a ripple effect on how Darnold attacks the defense targeting his other wideouts on the outside or in the slot.
--Seahawks tackles Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross versus Vikings outside linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel: Minnesota moved on from long-time standout rusher Danielle Hunter during the offseason, but the additions of Greenard and Van Ginkel have made his departure much easier to deal with. Coming over from Houston following a breakout year, Greenard has continued his ascent in Brian Flores' defense, harassing quarterbacks to the tune of 66 pressures, 10.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles along with 15 tackles for loss. Van Ginkel has been a somewhat bigger surprise, already reaching a career-high nine sacks with 38 pressures and two interceptions as a do-it-all edge who can rush and drop back into coverage in a pinch.
Those two newcomers both offer plenty of quick twitch off the edge, with Greenard being more of a speed to power style rusher and Van Ginkel having the explosiveness and technical savvy to win consistently as a finesse rusher, creating potential problems for Seattle's maligned line. Cross has allowed the third-most quarterback pressures among NFL tackles along with six sacks, but he has nearly 200 more pass blocking reps than the two players ahead of him and has generally been solid in his third season. As for Lucas, he's been a bit rusty coming off a long layoff recovering from knee surgery, yielding four sacks and 14 pressures in five starts while having most of his trouble with quicker rushers who beat him upfield. That may be a significant concern going into this game given the talented defenders he will be squaring off against.
--Seahawks linebackers Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight versus Vikings running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers: For most of the season, the Vikings have had a middling rushing attack that has been good enough to keep defenses honest and open up the play action game for Darnold and his talented wideouts. Still a quality all-around back, Jones ranks 12th in missed tackles forced (41), 12th in 10-plus yard runs (23), and 10th in receptions at his position, but ball security has been an issue for him all year with seven combined fumbles. Akers, a former NFC West nemesis who started his career with the Rams, has been an effective change of pace back with limited opportunities producing 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns, including two as a receiver.
Jones has been a game changer since joining the Seahawks in late October, but last week may have been his most uneven performance with his new team, as he missed multiple tackles in open field in the first half as the Packers raced out to a 14-point lead. He did force a fumble against Josh Jacobs in the second half, however, leading to a Charbonnet touchdown a few plays later. His ability to punch out the ball could be an x-factor to watch considering Aaron Jones' history of coughing up the football with 21 career fumbles. Meanwhile, Knight will face one of his toughest tests yet in coverage with Jones and Akers both being capable receivers who can run an array of routes out of the backfield.
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