New York City voters just gave us a glimpse of the Democratic Party's future -- and it looks to voters like more crime than common sense.
Our new American Pulse poll finds Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani still leading the fractured 2025 mayor's race at 36.9 percent. His support is durable, but not overwhelming. And it cracks the moment crime and public safety enter the conversation.
When voters learn about his "defund the police" record and his push to disband the NYPD's Strategic Response Group -- the same unit that responded to the Midtown mass shooting -- 58 percent say they're less likely to support him. A stunning 85 percent of New Yorkers say crime is a problem; nearly half call it a serious problem.
Now we can see why. Mamdani's latest idea is to end enforcement of all misdemeanor charges -- everything from shoplifting to low-level drug possession to DUI. The New York Post rightly called it an "E-ZPass for criminals." In cities across the country already plagued by crime, policies like this aren't do-gooder reforms -- they hurt innocent people.
That should be political malpractice in a place where voters already told us they rejected his government-run grocery store scheme (54 percent opposed it in our last poll), his refusal to denounce antisemitic slogans like "Globalize the Intifada" (53 percent said they are less likely to support him because of it). Now, his radical plan to decriminalize entire categories of crime is a move that some voters see as a threat to public safety. His slogans may sell, but his policies don't.
And the rest of the Democratic bench isn't faring much better. Andrew Cuomo, who says he's had a change of heart, has slipped nearly 5 points since July, dragged down by multiple factors, including his cashless bail law that many believe exacerbates crime -- 53 percent say it makes them less likely to back him. Eric Adams is even worse off, sitting at a brutally negative 35 net favorability, with 69 percent of voters saying Adams' public corruption indictment makes them less likely to vote for him.
The Democratic choices in America's bluest city boil down to defunding the police, crime-worsening bail reform and corruption.
For Republicans, this fractured field creates a narrow opening. Curtis Sliwa is already consolidating about half the GOP vote and edging up with independents. If Cuomo stays in long enough to split Democrats, and if Sliwa continues to unite Republicans and independents who are tired of crime, the race could flip. Ballot placement even helps: Mamdani and Sliwa are on the top party lines, while Cuomo and Adams are buried farther down on independent lines.
But win or lose in New York, the bigger story is what this says about Democrats nationally.
The same week Mamdani was floating the idea of "E-ZPass for criminals," President Donald Trump signed sweeping executive orders to end cashless bail. The order immediately empowers federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., to bypass local bail laws, and it threatens to withhold federal funds from jurisdictions that refuse to comply. Trump made the case bluntly: Cashless bail endangers the public, and victims -- like the 94-year-old New Yorker who told the Post "anything that will help us" after being assaulted -- are paying the price.
The contrast could not be sharper.
On one side, Democrats are putting forward candidates who see crime as an abstract social condition, best met with fewer prosecutions and more leniency. On the other hand, Trump is putting crime victims first, stretching federal action to protect the public, and rolling back failed bail experiments.
Here's what the data tells us: Voters side with common sense.
In our NYC poll, "Anyone Else" beats Mamdani by 6.5 points once crime is in focus. In our national surveys, cashless bail is a political liability, and "defund the police" is toxic -- even in Democrat-leaning New York City. Voters are drawing a hard line.
The bottom line: the future of the Democratic Party is being written by candidates like Zohran Mamdani -- policies too extreme even for their own Democratic voters. The more Democrats lean into extreme activist wish lists, the more they alienate the very constituencies they need to win.
Republicans, meanwhile, have the easier case to make. When the choice is between safety and slogans, order and chaos, voters will always choose safety and order.
Breadlines meet baggage. The slogans may sell, but the policies don't. And in New York, as in the nation, voters know the difference.