SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Despite the fact that the National Hurricane Center has lowered the chances of Invest 91AL down to 60% from 90% just 24 hours ago, it still has a good chance of becoming the next named storm.
To give you some reference during the developing phases of Milton in 2024 the chances for development went from 40% for development for 7 days out, to 80% less than 48 hours later. So a lot can still happen despite both the EURO and GFS (American) models now scaling back on a tropical cyclone developing in the Atlantic.
So we have to stay vigilant and continue to monitor this system very closely over the course of the next week or so as it will eventually shake off the dry air around it and will likely get over some very warm water as it nears the Caribbean.
We are expecting to see the summer weather continue with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend otherwise look for partly cloudy skies. We could see some late morning early afternoon coastal showers or an isolated thunderstorm. While most of the action later in the afternoon should be inland.
Beginning on Tuesday look for more storm on a widespread basis as more moisture moves back into the area.
For boaters look for winds out of the east turning to the south at 5-10 knots and seas running a foot or less with a light chop.