Reserve Bank keeps cash rate on hold


Reserve Bank keeps cash rate on hold

The official cash rate will remain on hold at 3.6 per cent, after the Reserve Bank board agreed to make no change at its November meeting.

While households might have been holding out hope for an interest rate cut, the board's decision was largely expected by experts and the market.

Higher-than-expected quarterly inflation data, released in late October, firmed up predictions that the cash rate would remain on hold.

Headline annual inflation for the September quarter rose from 2.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent, exceeding the Reserve Bank's target band of 2 to 3 per cent for the first time in more than a year.

Underlying inflation, the central bank's preferred measure, rose on an annual basis from 2.7 per cent to 3 per cent.

The inflation jump led the major banks to revise their expectations for the Reserve Bank's future cash rate moves.

Commonwealth Bank expects there will be no further cash rate increases for some time.

Belinda Allen, Commonwealth Bank's head of Australian economics, noted the September inflation result would be of "genuine concern for the RBA".

"We expect the central bank to take a more hawkish tone to avoid a return to higher inflation," she said.

Westpac now expects the next rate cut to happen in May 2026, followed by another cut in August.

"Although we expect the December quarter inflation data to be a lot less scary than the September quarter, we think it will take more than one quarter of data to convince the RBA that the inflation trend is still consistent with target beyond the short term," Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said.

NAB expects the Reserve Bank will keep the cash rate at 3.6 per cent until June 2026, when it predicts a 25-basis-point cut.

At the Reserve Bank's last board meeting, governor Michele Bullock said the economy was in a "good spot" but said the board would remain cautious about a possible uptick in inflation.

She had conceded that monthly inflation prints were worse than expected.

"It doesn't, I don't think, suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious," Ms Bullock told reporters in late September.

Out of the 35 experts and economists surveyed by comparison website Finder, 30 had forecast the Reserve Bank would keep the cash rate at 3.6 per cent.

Two-thirds of experts predicted at least one more cash rate cut in the next 12 months, with most expecting it will arrive in February 2026.

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