Dung Pam Sha is a professor of Political Economy and Development Studies at the University of Jos and former Director of Research, National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru, Plateau State. In this interview with the North-Central Bureau Chief, ISAAC SHOBAYO, the scholar speaks on the insecurity ravaging Nigeria, particularly in the northern part of the country and the call for foreign intervention in some quarters, among other issues.
SIR, insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the north, is becoming increasingly dangerous and frightening. What is your appraisal of the situation?
What we want first is an assessment of the security situation in Nigeria, particularly in the North Central and northern regions in general. The indicators clearly show that insecurity is increasing by the day. This is evident in the rising number of people dying, people being attacked in their homes, and individuals being abducted from streets or highways while commuting. We also see it in attacks on government institutions like schools, where children are being kidnapped.
These indicators show that the nation is under serious threat -- one unleashed by bandits, terrorists, insurgents, and other groups. Some of these actors are driven by ideology, while others are motivated purely by economic gain, especially those kidnapping people for ransom. That is an economic transaction, and it is something government must pay attention to by carefully analyzing the situation and framing the problem correctly.
My concern with the government's response lies both in how they define the problem and in the nature of their response so far. My conclusion is that the government has not responded effectively. We have not seen any well-designed strategy to address insurgency or banditry. Over the years, there has been no clear, well-crafted framework to tackle these issues.
Secondly, there is what the government is unable to do -- and what we Nigerians are unable to do. Once we say "banditry," people assume that is the full story. There has been no effort to analyze the connection between insurgents and bandits. If we do that analysis, it becomes clear that insurgents rely on bandits to generate funds to sustain terrorism and insurgency.
Another gap is the lack of geographic analysis. For example, what happens in Plateau State is different from what happens in Zamfara, and that may also differ from what is happening in Niger State. A thorough analysis would help us understand what is really going on. For instance, what is happening on the Plateau has now taken on the characteristics of genocide.
And what is genocide? According to the International Criminal Court, it is the deliberate extermination or displacement of a group of people for reasons known to the perpetrators. It could be to take over land or to facilitate economic or criminal interests, often with government complicity or failure to act. That is genocide. Forget whether we call it "Christian genocide" or anything else -- it is still genocide. When people are killed, displaced, or an area depopulated to take over the land, that is genocide.
So, my concern is that there has been no concrete analysis. If such analysis existed, the government would not casually dismiss claims by saying there is no genocide in Nigeria. There is genocide -- but we must identify where it is happening. Nobody is doing that work. Instead, everything is lumped together under "religious killings" or "banditry," but there are multiple layers: genocide in some areas, economic kidnapping in others, and forced displacement elsewhere.
This requires careful study by government, civil society, and NGOs so that appropriate solutions can be developed. The strategy for Zamfara will not solve the crisis in Plateau State. The solutions must match the context. So yes, concrete analysis of this insecurity is necessary if we want meaningful solutions.
At this moment, Nigeria appears to be descending into anarchy. Recent events, such as the kidnapping of schoolgirls and other recurring episodes, indicate that the situation is deteriorating. This has resulted in what many described as an "educational lockdown" in the North. What's the way out?
This pattern is not new. We saw similar incidents in 2014 and 2015 with the Chibok girls and others abducted from different schools. When you study the pattern, you begin to notice that many of these incidents occur close to election cycles. So the question arises: is this political? Or is it a response to the political atmosphere at the time? That must be considered.
Despite government interventions, safe schools initiatives, policies, and various interventions -- the problem persists. Those evaluating these initiatives must explain why they have not worked. Is it a funding problem? Are resources not being released? Or are they being released but not properly used? These are the conversations we need to have. But to answer your question directly: yes, the concern is valid. So, I was saying earlier that it was a good decision to withdraw students from schools that were vulnerable. For me, as someone who approaches issues from a problem-solving perspective, that was the immediate and necessary step anyone should have taken under such a situation.
But beyond that, the government must take concrete action to stop the ongoing kidnapping of schoolchildren. This is capable of further eroding the interest of children of school age in education. It is not a pleasant situation that should be treated like any other issue. It deserves special attention from the government and other stakeholders.
Also, we are getting close to election season, and you know how politicians may begin to act -- either to discredit the opposition or to undermine those in power. But no politician has the right to gamble with the lives of Nigerians for any reason.
When people are abducted from their homes or communities and the government or families are forced to pay huge ransoms, it reflects very negatively on us as a nation. So my position is simple: since the government has the constitutional responsibility to protect lives and property, it must fulfill that obligation. That responsibility must be carried out decisively, transparently, and without actions that could further endanger citizens.
Those displaced because their lands were forcefully taken must have a plan for safe return. And those who have illegally occupied such lands must be removed. That is what should happen.
But some people are accusing the security agencies of handling this matter lightly. Do you agree with that, considering the magnitude of insecurity?
Well, security agencies operate under government authority. So government must issue decisive instructions and ensure those directives are enforced. If the instructions are given and the security agencies still fail to act, then it becomes clear that they may have an agenda different from that of the government.
So, once the president and his security chiefs decide that certain decisive actions must be taken to secure Nigerians, those actions must follow. If they do not, then the president should know that there are saboteurs within the system.
Another important point, which has been raised repeatedly, is that there are individuals within government -- whether in the military, security structures, or other institutions -- who are supporting insurgency and banditry. The government must identify and remove such actors to secure the country.
Do you think foreign intervention is needed at this point, as some are already suggesting?
Every government facing a serious crisis -- and that admits the crisis -- must be willing to seek assistance if the challenge is beyond its capacity. The assistance could come from within Africa, from ECOWAS, or from outside the continent. We've seen countries request external support in the past, and such interventions have worked.
However, any external support must be negotiated carefully and patriotically. It must not appear as though Nigeria is surrendering its sovereignty. The objective must be restoring peace, order, and national stability. So yes, I believe we can seek assistance from friendly nations, including the United States and others, but the conditions and frameworks must be clearly defined.
What role is mining playing in this insecurity? Because in Zamfara and other places, bandits seem to have taken control of mining sites and are reportedly using the proceeds to finance insurgency.
Where there is displacement, especially in locations with mineral deposits, it suggests there is a strong economic motive behind the violence. In Plateau, for instance, the areas that have been forcefully depopulated are areas known to have mineral resources. We are waiting to see whether foreign companies will eventually occupy those areas or whether small-scale miners will take over. But what we do know is that in many places where communities have been chased away, mining activities are ongoing.
So yes, mining is a significant driver of insecurity, especially where bandits are taking over territories and demanding ransom. The government needs to take a critical look at the mining sector as it relates to banditry and terrorism. In some states, these elements have taken over mining sites and use them as launching pads against communities. Apart from this, all manner of atrocity takes place in these areas. So government must find a way to regulate the sector.