New 'axis' or performative front?
: President Lee must exercise strategic clarity, prudent diplomacy
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended his first multilateral diplomatic event since taking office in 2011, standing shoulder to shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on a rostrum for a military parade in Tiananmen Square marking 80 years since the end of World War II.
The gathering of the three leaders was the first of its kind in 66 years. In 1959, the then-leaders of China, North Korea and Russia stood together in the same place to watch a Chinese military parade, in a show of unity for the socialist bloc. The North Korean leader was Kim's grandfather, Kim Il-sung. The highly symbolic optics of Wednesday's event signaled a response among non-Western nations to U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive "America First" policy and the imposition of tariffs.
Particularly noticeable was the attendance of the reclusive Kim Jong-un, who has not traveled out of his country since the botched summit meeting with Trump in Hanoi in 2019. Kim's attendance and travel to China suggests, particularly after the summit between President Lee Jae Myung and Trump, a willingness to reengage with the world, including with Trump. Seoul should find out his intentions and measure its own pace accordingly, by studying the outcomes from North Korea's dialogues with China and Russia. In addition, by taking his daughter Kim Ju-ae for her first overseas visit, Kim let the world know he is considering her as his de facto successor.
Nevertheless, China's hosting of like-minded nations amounts to an inflection point, made in response to the tough challenges in trade and foreign affairs posed by Trump. Its ramifications for the Indo-Pacific should be assessed by Seoul in order to address any new variables with confidence and strategic clarity. Lee should take full advantage of his keynote speech scheduled for the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 23 to stay on message of maximizing national interest and security. A larger home event, the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, will give the president a broader venue and room to engage with leaders, possibly including Xi and Trump, and he should make full use of it.
Xi, in his speech to the military, said the world faces "a choice of peace or war, dialogue or confrontation, win-win or zero-sum," and that the Chinese people will stand on the right side of history. At the earlier Shanghai Cooperation Organization held Sunday and Monday in Tianjin, Xi called for unity against "hegemonism and power politics."
Trump, who had previously said he was not concerned about the Beijing gathering, on Wednesday accused the three leaders of conspiring against the United States, even as he said he had good relations with Xi. At a glance, there seems to be more volatility added to the uncertainty over Trump's tariff imposition and U.S. attempts to curb China's military posture in the region. But in crisis lies opportunity, and Lee must make full use of his flexible and pragmatic approach to achieve national interest.
This confrontation of words places an extra burden on Lee, making it imperative for Seoul to strengthen cooperation with Washington and Tokyo. In its relations with China and Russia, more diplomatic acumen and finesse will be called for. Trump likewise would do well to review the value and respect of the alliances.
For South Korea, the bar has been raised on its goal to reengage with North Korea. In his summit talks with Trump, Lee had proposed playing the role of "pacemaker" if the U.S. president becomes a "peacemaker" for the two Koreas. Lee must effectively control and manage his pace in order to achieve the administration's goal of reconciliation and exchange with North Korea.
The North Korean leader successfully illustrated that Pyongyang would continue to upgrade its nuclear weaponry by visiting a lab where a new intercontinental ballistic missile was being developed. That leaves Seoul to clearly define how it will address the North's nuclear developments, when denuclearization is a premise for dialogue to even begin. These are times of potential upheaval, and Seoul should define its assets and uphold respect for alliances as it navigates what is looking like a sea of rougher waves.
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