This morning, Steelers Depot's Mathew Marczi posed the question of who the Steelers biggest breakout candidate for 2025 is. My answer? linebacker Payton Wilson.
Wilson saw plenty of action last season, playing fine and even flashing greatness at times. Now entering Year Two, Wilson is poised to step up and become a full-time starter at inside linebacker.
But an increase in playing time alone doesn't guarantee a breakout season. With LB Elandon Roberts gone, Wilson will almost certainly see more snaps, even with the signing of LB Malik Harrison from the Baltimore Ravens and potential return of Cole Holcomb. If Wilson breaks out, what should we expect?
For starters, Wilson should surpass 100 tackles. He recorded 78 tackles while playing just 45-percent of the defensive snaps. If his snaps increase to at least 65-percent, 110 tackles is well-within reach. For comparison, fellow inside linebacker Patrick Queen recorded 129 tackles last season. While Wilson likely won't match Queen's snap count, barring injury, his numbers should still see a significant jump.
Wilson already excelled in pass coverage, and still has room to improve. Pro Football Focus gave Wilson a great pass coverage grade of 77.3 and the raw stats supported that score. Wilson allowed a passer rating of 79.0 and a completion percentage of 79.5-percent, per Pro Football Reference. For a linebacker, those are strong numbers. Wilson also made an incredible interception against the Baltimore Ravens, showcasing athleticism that got him drafted.
Although it would be unrealistic to expect another highlight-reel interception like that, Wilson's athleticism is big reason why he's poised to breakout. His PFF pass coverage grade of 77.3 was sixth best out of all eligible linebackers. While stats don't tell the whole story, film does.
Another reason to bet on Payton Wilson to breakout is his work ethic and mentality. After being drafted he spoke about looking forward to learning from his teammates. Although Wilson showed some struggles run defense, there's every reason to believe he's been working hard to improve that part of his game.
For an uber-athletic linebacker like him, it makes sense that the pass coverage game would come more naturally than run defense. In coverage, Wilson is often dropping into a zone and watching the quarterback's eyes, or sticking with a receiver in man-defense. Run defense, on the other hand, requires diagnosing the play, finding hole and closing it, and fighting through 300-pound lineman to reach the ball carrier.
At 6-foot-4, 242 pounds, Wilson has great size, but NFL strength is different. With a full offseason to build muscle and improve his weaknesses, he's likely to become both stronger and better block-shedder. In addition, with a year of experience under his belt, the game should slow down for Wilson which will allow him to diagnose plays quicker.
Another reason to expect Wilson to improve in the run game is the addition Pittsburgh made to the defensive line. By drafting defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black, the Steelers signaled their commitment to an improved run defense. A stronger defensive line that can hold the point of attack should fee up Wilson to shoot into the backfield and rack up tackles for a loss. Last season, Wilson had just three tackles for a loss.
With more experience, a better defensive front, and more playing time, Wilson should see those numbers climb toward double-digits.
Pittsburgh has been looking for a long-term answer at inside linebacker since Ryan Shazier's career ended. This year, Payton Wilson will prove he is that answer.
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