U.S. faces strategic Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) gap with China


U.S. faces strategic Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) gap with China

During the Cold War there was the perceived "bomber gap" between the United States and the former Soviet Union, followed by a "missile gap."

Decades down the road in the current United States-China Cold War, the U.S. should be planning a response to a looming potential strategic Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) gap with China.

This is important because reusable space launch vehicles (SLVs) could quickly become significant multi-role military platform, undertaking conventional or non-nuclear bombing missions, nuclear bombing missions, in addition to transporting military payloads to multiple Earth orbits and taking people and critical cargo necessary for sustaining strategic positions on the Moon.

For example, one SpaceX Falcon-9 RLV might carry up to 8x precision-guided 2000-kilogram (4,400 lbs) non-nuclear and maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) bombs that could devastate a military base or a key economic infrastructure target -- and currently could launch a repeat mission in nine days.

But such a RVL bombing rate can only get better; Consider the non-nuclear bombing potential of 100 Falcon-9s that are able to launch two missions a day.

But to be clear, in 2025 the "RLV-Gap" favors the United States: By Oct. 13, out of 121 total U.S. space launches so far, 117 were from the SpaceX Corporation and the vast majority utilized their reusable Falcon-9 (17.5 metric tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO)) or reusable Falcon Heavy SLVs (37 tons to LEO).

Just one U.S. space company with RLVs -- SpaceX -- accounts for 96 percent of U.S. space launches so far in 2025, creating a significant strategic advantage: the U.S. does not have to manufacture every SLV it uses.

Having just completed a successful test flight on Oct. 13, when operational, the reusable SpaceX Starship could have an initial payload capability of 100 tons to LEO that could grow to 150 tons.

Other U.S. or allied-nation companies that are developing RLVs include: Blue Origin New Glenn, 45 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO); United Launch Alliance Vulcan Centaur, 27 tons to LEO; Rocket Labs Neutron, 13 tons to LEO; and a planned European reusable "Ariane Next" could have an eventual LEO payload of 100 tons.

China, as of Oct. 13, has only conducted 61 space launches and none of them by reusable SLVs.

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