Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 2025 Memorial Tournament. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Memorial. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Limited field this week. The data will run marginally differently.
You can find my premium course breakdown in my Vegas Report this week.
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
One of the factors I try to find in my model stems from golfers who struck the ball well during their last start but may have underachieved because of an abnormally poor putting performance (or at least poorer than my baseline statistics projected).
There were two names for me at Charles Schwab who fit that criteria to a "T."
My model ranked Berger and Rai as top-15 win equity players on the slate (top 10 for Berger), and you can find additional top 10 returns when diving into Tee-To-Green production over the last 24 rounds when gearing the statistics to fit Muirfield Village on each name.
I will be aggressively building lineups around both, and each option carries real win equity consideration/tons of DFS playability.
While Aaron Rai is technically the best value for me on the slate in the $7,000 section, Novak landed a close second because of his stellar form and equally stout statistical profile. My model ranked him fourth in my 'Key Scoring' ouput, a glorified projection for those with the best chance to produce birdies on the par-five locations and avoid mistakes at the longer par-four settings.
Conversely, Cauley was my model's top $6,000 golfer because of his overall appeal of landing as the only sub-$8,000 golfer to crack the top 40 of all seven metrics I weighed this week. That profile is enough to make him worth consideration in all lineup constructions.
While that question requires more follow-ups than pure answers, I am not sure it matters quite as much in this particular setting since birdies are tough to come by this week, and scoring totals will be dominated by finishing position marks.
I trust no two golfers more for their built-in top-20 safety in this field, meaning don't be surprised if one or the other finds their way into an optimal build.