Eliminating all GHG emissions from energy by 2050 is not achievable. Laws, carbon budgets and policies to achieve this objective are demonstrably, and inevitably, failing.
Few assessments of the State's energy strategy have been as direct, and as cutting, but a new assessment by the Irish Academy of Engineering is just that.
The Rebalancing Ireland's Energy Policy report argues that the Government's focus on reducing emissions ignores energy prices, energy security and long-term (25-year) planning of critical electricity infrastructure, and it is having a detrimental impact on Irish consumers.
At times, readers may wonder why this publication devotes such attention to energy policy. The answer is simple: energy shapes almost every aspect of life in Ireland. It underpins the quality of our public services, the competitiveness of our economy and the viability of key sectors, including agriculture.
To put it bluntly, every major energy-policy decision ultimately affects you. Increasingly, there is concern that Ireland is moving in the wrong direction, driven by policy choices made in recent years, particularly over the last term of Government.
The Academy's latest report calls attention to these issues, and it is well worth taking a moment to consider its findings.
Impossible
The report, a scathing 90-page review of the country's energy system, concludes that Ireland's approach is failing to deliver its objectives and is increasingly facing deep internal contradictions.
At the heart of the problem is a legislative commitment to eliminate greenhouse gases within the next 25 years, a commitment the Academy says is technically impossible based on current engineering realities.
Indeed, the report paints a stark picture of the country's energy mix. Fossil fuels still provide 83% of Ireland's primary energy requirement. This places Ireland among the most fossil-fuel-dependent states in Europe, ranking fifth out of 28 countries assessed.
Renewable generation has increased, but geography and infrastructure limits what can realistically be achieved. Ireland does not have the hydroelectric capacity of the Nordics, nor the nuclear infrastructure of France, which help those countries deliver low-carbon electricity year-round.
The result is that Ireland's electricity system remains one of the most carbon-intensive in Europe. In 2024, electricity generation produced 280kg of CO2 per MWh. By comparison, France produced just 44kg and Sweden 36kg, largely because both countries rely on nuclear and hydro. Ireland's electricity production still remains heavily reliant on gas to fill gaps when wind and solar output drops.
Overshoot
The scale of the challenge is clear. Ireland emitted 58 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2024, down from 66 million tonnes in 2018. More than half of those emissions, 55%, came from energy-related activities such as electricity generation, transport, heating and industrial combustion. Yet the laws guiding national policy require that these emissions fall to effectively zero by mid-century.
This would require a radical change in how we live and when it comes to it, Irish people are very unlikely to accept these changes.
EPA projections show that Ireland will overshoot its first carbon budget (2021-2025) by between eight and 12 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent, and the second (2026-2030) by between 77 and 114 million tonnes. These are not marginal misses, they indicate that Ireland is on course to exceed its 2030 targets by a very substantial margin. Because overshoots must be carried into later budgets, every year the gap grows wider.
Fines
The financial consequences of this are potentially large. By failing to meet EU emissions and renewable energy obligations for 2030, the State faces potential liabilities of between €2.9 billion and €10.2 billion.
The Academy argues that these costs arise directly from adopting European targets that did not reflect Ireland's structural limitations, a small, isolated grid, no nuclear power, limited hydro resources and a planning system not fit for purpose anymore.
This leads to one of the central contradictions highlighted by the Academy. Policy aims to eliminate fossil fuels, yet fossil fuels are the only proven means of guaranteeing electricity supply during winter or periods of low renewable output.
Even under an extremely ambitious scenario where 95% of electricity comes from renewables and interconnectors by 2050, gas-fired generation would still be required, producing around 0.8 million tonnes of CO2 per year. For heavy industries such as cement and alumina, which together emitted nearly 3.4 million tonnes of CO2 in 2024, there are no fully zero-carbon alternatives available at scale.
Substantially missed
Despite these realities, the systems meant to support renewable expansion are years behind schedule. Ireland's 2030 offshore wind targets will be "very substantially missed," the report warns, citing delays in marine area planning, environmental designations, port upgrades and grid reinforcement.
Without resolving these bottlenecks, the country cannot build the 2030 renewables needed, let alone the 54,000 megawatts contemplated in long-term policy plans, which the Academy suggests could impose unnecessary costs on consumers if pursued indiscriminately.
Parlous
The report describes Ireland's current position as parlous in terms of energy security.
The country has no large-scale natural gas storage, remains highly dependent on imported energy, and is preparing only a limited-capacity LNG facility that the Academy believes is too small and too short-lived for the needs of a rapidly electrifying economy.
Rising demand from population growth, industry and electric transport will require more robust backup capacity than is currently planned.
Rebalance needed
The authors argue that Ireland must "rebalance" its energy policy.
Instead of viewing 2050 net-zero as an absolute mandate, they say policymakers should recognise it as a desirable but constrained objective, one that must be weighed alongside affordability, security and deliverability.
They call for a national electricity-infrastructure masterplan, major reforms to energy-price transparency, and preparation for technologies such as nuclear and synthetic fuels if they become viable later in the transition.
Without such a shift, the country risks drifting further into what the National Economic and Social Council recently described as a strategic "fog", ambitious targets, insufficient delivery and a widening gap between policy and reality.