It's a mug's game to try and predict peak fossil fuel demand.
The International Energy Agency suggests 2030, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) 2050. There is no crystal ball to tell us what our energy future looks like, whether or when renewable energy will outpace fossil fuels.
What we do know is energy consumption, regardless of the source(s), will continue its upward trajectory.
Continued exploration and discovery of new oilfields and extraction technologies such as fracking have kept the oil and gas flowing. Peak oil only suggests consumption has plateaued.
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If we are serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we need fossil fuel consumption to decline quickly and be replaced with clean energy.
As long as fossil fuel profit margins remain higher than those for renewables, investors won't invest in solar, wind and other fossil-free technologies.
Donald Trump's abandonment of renewables, and support of fossil fuels, is a major complication and is slowing down the renewables transition. Other countries, taking their cue from Trump, are slowing or abandoning green energy projects and Paris Accord commitments, Canada being one of them.
It's naive to think politicians won't break their promises. Their mandate is to stay in power.
Mark Carney, who we saw as the perfect foil for the tariff-loving, fossil-fuel supporting, climate-change denying Trump, appears to be backtracking on his own stated climate values. This leaves me to question his climate change policies. So far, Carney has disappointed Canadians who hoped for some real action on climate change.
According to West Coast Environmental Law, "Carney's government has walked back key federal climate policies, including the consumer carbon price, the electric vehicle mandate and -- alarmingly -- Canada's commitment to its 2030 emissions reduction target. It has also hinted that it might weaken or cancel the proposed oil and gas emissions cap. These aren't tweaks to our climate plan. They're reversals. And they send a clear message: climate action is no longer a priority, even as the climate crisis worsens."
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So, what is Carney's game plan? Leaving the door open to new Canadian pipelines, knowing private investors would shy away given the numerous roadblocks (tanker ban on the B.C. coast, Indigenous concerns, B.C. Premier David Eby), appears to be strategic.
Is talk about resurrecting the Northern Gateway and Keystone XL pipelines just that?
Times have changed since the Coastal GasLink pipeline was built and Canadian LNG (liquefied natural gas) may not be competitive globally. Is this really a good investment with fossil gas demand estimated to peak by 2035? Or has too much time and financial and political capital been invested to reverse course?
All fossil fuels are polluting -- from extraction, to transportation, to burning -- but according to the Cornell Chronicle, "liquified natural gas leaves a greenhouse gas footprint that is 33 per cent worse than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account."
LNG is less polluting than oil and coal when burned, but methane leakage during production and transport is problematic as methane is a highly potent greenhouse gas. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.
"A better bet would be to continue to grow renewable energies like solar and wind. Why are we choosing to prioritize this sort of project when there's so many better projects in front of us? As the world transitions to green energy, we're going to be left behind," said Liz McDowell, senior campaign director with Stand.earth.
The longer we take to make the transition, the greater the cost will be, in terms of human health, the Canadian economy and the climate.
Fossil fuels represent the past and it's time to invest, not in more pipelines and LNG but in clean, emissions-free energy. Other countries are moving on. It's time we did.