David Slade is a senior Post and Courier reporter and personal finance columnist. Over more than three decades he's worked for multiple newspapers and magazines, and his reporting has been honored with more than 50 state, regional and national journalism awards. David reports on the impacts of South Carolina's rapid population growth and development. Reach him at 843-937-5552 or [email protected]
South Carolina's population growth hit a fresh peak in 2024 as new residents continued to pour in from other states and nations.
Federal Census Bureau data shows the Palmetto State has been a top destination for people relocating from other parts of the U.S. for some time, with only two states gaining more residents over the past year from what's known as domestic migration.
Only three -- Florida, Texas and Utah -- saw their total populations grow faster.
South Carolina's population increased by an estimated 91,001 people, just slightly above the 90,600 in 2023.
"The population of the U.S. is steadily moving towards the Southeast, and South Carolina is at the heart of this migration trend," said Joseph Von Nessen, research economist at University of South Carolina.
"Moreover, this is a long-run trend," he added. "We expect to see more population growth in the Southeast than in any other region of the country over the next two decades."
One thing that's changed in the new population estimates is that South Carolina and the other rapidly growing states all saw more international migration in 2024 than in the several preceding years.
For example, in both 2024 and 2023 South Carolina gained about 91,000 people, all due to migration. But in 2023 more than 80,000 of those people moved from other states, while in 2024 it was about 68,000, with an increase in international migration making up the difference. (The countries of origin were not available in the data.)
Where did people come from, and where did they move to? The latest data doesn't touch on that, but most people who move to South Carolina have been drawn to coastal counties and to inland metropolitan areas, with Greenville and Spartanburg recently seeing large population gains.
Is it too much growth, too fast?
"It's not like we have a choice," said Professor Frank Hefner, director of the Office of Economic Analysis at College of Charleston. "Like everything, there are benefits and costs."
"As more and more people move here, yes, it's going to drive up housing costs," he said. "Congestion is going to be a bigger issue, because our infrastructure isn't keeping up."
The plus side, said Von Nessen, is that a growing population raises demand for local businesses, and makes the state more attractive to relocating companies.
"As more people move to South Carolina and the Southeastern U.S., businesses will increasingly want to locate here, where they can import or produce goods and then ship them to a fast-growing customer base in the surrounding region," he said.
In a large state such as Texas, with more than 31 million residents, another 91,000 people would be less of a big deal. But South Carolina's population is just under 5.5 million, so gaining that many made it the nation's fourth-fastest-growing state.
Here's what's known from recent Post and Courier reporting on census data:
All of South Carolina's population growth has come in less than half its counties. Most rural areas continued to lose residents.The population gains have added pressure to housing markets, and to roads and classrooms.In response to growth pressures, development moratoriums and impact fees have become more common in S.C. towns, cities and counties.Weather, low property taxes and conservative politics are among the things attracting newcomers.The percentage of South Carolina residents who were born in the state has dropped from about 80 percent in 1970 to just under 52 percent in 2023.Unlike other states and the nation, the diversity of South Carolina's population has hardly changed despite a doubling of that population since 1970. In 2023, the state had the fastest-growing white population in the country, reflecting the people moving in.Another million residents are expected by 2042, and that growth will be concentrated in a few counties.In just a few years there will be more residents above the age of 64 than below the age of 18.
South Carolina is just one part of a broader national population shift to Southern states.
"The South was the only region with positive net domestic migration, where the number of people entering the region exceeded those leaving," the Census Bureau said in a statement released with the latest data Dec. 19.
In the time since the last decennial census was conducted on April 1, 2020, South Carolina gained an estimated 360,579 residents, and because the state recorded more deaths than births during that time, all the population growth came from people moving to the state.
Most of them, 314,953, represented net migration from other states, a figure marking the number who moved in minus the number who moved out.
The people moving to South Carolina have included countless retirees, many of them moving to age-restricted subdivisions. In at least five counties by 2040 a minimum of one-third of the population is expected to be 65 or older.
The so-called Gray Tsunami has started to concern some economists and state officials.
"South Carolina is a popular retirement destination and a significant percentage of in-migrants tend to be older -- either retired or close to retirement age," said Von Nessen. "Everyone who moves to South Carolina increases local demand, and thus increases the need for more workers."
"The question is whether we are also attracting enough younger people to help satisfy this increased worker demand," he said.
Nationally, in the 12 months through July 2024 the U.S. population grew by more than 3.3 million, with the birth rate accounting for more than half a million and international migration responsible for the rest. That put the nation's population just over 340 million.