LEXINGTON, Ky, -- In recent weeks, sportsbooks have begun unveiling their over/under win totals for college football teams across the country.
They have not been kind to Kentucky.
Caesars, FanDuel and Circa all have UK's number at 4.5. DraftKings is the highest on the Wildcats at 5.5.
The reasons for skepticism about Kentucky are clear.
The Wildcats are coming off their worst season since 2013. Even the most dedicated of fans will have a difficult time outlining exactly what to expect from a team with more than half the scholarship players wearing a UK jersey for the first time this fall. The schedule is daunting with only two games that can be considered almost certain victories.
But are there reasons for optimism?
With less than 100 days until the season opener versus Toledo, here are two reasons you might bet the over and three reasons you might bet the over for Kentucky's season win total.
Why you should bet the over for Kentucky football win total
-- Mark Stoops has worked on the culture: Kentucky's slipping results on the field across the last three seasons have coincided with growing buzz about locker room concerns off it. UK coach Mark Stoops, his assistants and returning players have not disputed that scuttlebutt this offseason, instead choosing to address the criticism head on to improve accountability within the program.
"That is something that didn't meet our standards, and that's on me," Stoops said before spring practice. "So, we set that precedent right from the beginning (this offseason). We've worked extremely hard, and we have to intentionally develop them, give them the tools and design exactly, very clearly what we expect of them."
Of course, how effective the work to fix the culture has been is impossible to judge until games start, but veterans have at least returned positive early reviews.
"I feel like no one wants to go through what we went through last year," junior safety Ty Bryant said. "... It was a bad season for us, and the feeling that we had when we walked off this field for the last time against Louisville, no one wants to feel that way again."
-- Zach Calzada provides a different look at quarterback: A year ago, much of Kentucky's hopes were centered around the bet that former five-star high school quarterback Brock Vandagriff would be able to cash in on his recruiting hype after three years as a backup at Georgia. Instead, while the cast around him certainly did not help, Vandagriff ended up looking nowhere close to as good of a quarterback as pundits had projected him to be in high school.
In searching for a transfer quarterback to replace Vandagriff after his retirement, Kentucky decided to go for proven college experience rather than try to hit on another lottery ticket of a power program backup.
Projected starter Zach Calzada will be playing his seventh season of college football this fall on his fourth team. He has SEC experience, helping lead Texas A&M to an upset of No. 1 Alabama as a sophomore in 2021, and has spent the last two seasons dominating the FCS level.
While no one should expect Calzada to duplicate his stats from Incarnate Word's spread offense -- 3,791 passing yard, 33 rushing yards, 40 total touchdowns -- in Kentucky's pro-style attack, he brings the type of dual-threat skill set that should translate well to Bush Hamdan's offense.
Why you should bet the under on Kentucky football wins
-- The recent transfer portal track record: For Kentucky to hit the over on the win total -- especially if you are betting over 5.5 -- it will need many of the 24 scholarship transfers brought into the program over the offseason to lead the way. The problem with that plan is the staff has yet to provide much concrete evidence to justify more faith in this transfer class a year after the 2024 transfer class largely disappointed.
The biggest argument for better transfer results this year than last year is the number of players who have excelled at smaller programs in the class. It's plausible to imagine a scenario where that college experience and desire to prove themselves against tougher competition leads to better results for Kentucky.
However, coaches have already acknowledged some of the offensive linemen signed from smaller programs need work in the weight room this summer to handle the physicality of the SEC. Even if the physicality is not a problem, it is probably unrealistic to expect similar statistical production from those players against an SEC schedule.
Kentucky needs many of those transfers to match their 2024 numbers -- or even exceed them -- to reach a bowl game.
-- A lack of star power: There has been no shortage of bad Kentucky football teams in the program's history, but for much of the last 30 years there have at least been clear faces of the team heading into the season, even for the teams that ended up being bad. For instance, Mark Stoops' first Kentucky team, which finished 2-10, at least had future NFL starters Avery Williamson, Bud Dupree and Za'Darius Smith on defense.
Who is the star of this team?
Maybe Calzada's ceiling turns out to be higher than currently projected. Maybe New Mexico State running back transfer Seth McGowan moves past his troubled legal past to prove he still has the potential that earned him a spot at Oklahoma out of high school. Maybe a receiver or defensive back emerges from the crowded pack at those positions to earn an NFL draft selection next spring.
You can't assume any of those scenarios is going to happen based on what we know as of now though.
Yes, Stoops' best Kentucky teams have thrived with a blue collar, lunch pail mentality, but those teams had stars, too. It's hard to even pick who the best player on this team is right now, let alone project anyone to carry the team the way Josh Allen, Benny Snell, Lynn Bowden, Will Levis and Wan'Dale Robinson have done during Stoops' tenure.
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