As the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) warm faster than almost any other region, climate change is no longer only an environmental issue. It has become a strategic and security challenge. Rising temperatures are disrupting food systems, intensifying migration, and putting new pressure on already fragile states. The region's stability -- economic, political, and social -- is increasingly tied to its ability to adapt to a changing climate.
The MENA region is warming at roughly twice the global average, according to the World Bank and the UN Environment Programme. Average temperatures are expected to rise by around four degrees Celsius by the end of the century, far above the global Paris Agreement target. Some Gulf cities could face summer heat levels exceeding the human tolerance threshold.
Extreme weather events such as droughts, sandstorms, and flash floods are becoming more frequent. In countries like Iraq, Tunisia, and Iran, recurring droughts have already reduced crop yields and strained electricity supplies.
This is not just about hotter days. It's about the destabilizing ripple effects that follow when water, food, and energy systems start to break down.
Agriculture remains one of the most climate-sensitive sectors in the region, yet many MENA economies still depend on it for rural employment and food supply.
Rain-fed farming is declining due to shifting rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts. Groundwater depletion is worsening as farmers pump more water to compensate. Salinization is spreading in coastal and irrigated areas, reducing soil fertility.
In Iraq's southern marshes, rising temperatures and reduced river flow have destroyed farmlands and fisheries. In Morocco and Tunisia, small farmers face mounting crop losses due to drought. Meanwhile, Egypt's Nile Delta -- one of the world's most fertile areas -- is threatened by sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion.
The result is a region increasingly dependent on food imports, even as global supply chains become more volatile. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), MENA already imports over half of its calories, making it vulnerable to climate shocks and price spikes abroad.
Water scarcity is the central climate-security link in MENA. Ninety percent of the region's land lies in arid or semi-arid zones, and 60 percent of surface water flows across borders, often shared by multiple countries.
As water resources decline, tensions over transboundary rivers are rising. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has triggered disputes with Egypt and Sudan. In the Tigris-Euphrates basin, Turkey's upstream dams have reduced water flow to Iraq and Syria. The Jordan River remains overused and heavily politicized among Israel, Jordan, and Palestine.
Energy production adds another layer. Thermal power plants, oil refineries, and desalination facilities all require significant water. As temperatures rise, so does electricity demand for air conditioning, creating feedback loops between energy stress and water scarcity.
Climate stress acts as a threat multiplier. It doesn't cause conflict on its own, but it amplifies existing tensions -- between communities, economic sectors, or neighboring states.
For instance, water scarcity can inflame ethnic or local rivalries over access to wells or irrigation canals. Energy shortages caused by droughts can trigger protests and government instability. Displacement and unemployment can increase recruitment opportunities for extremist groups in vulnerable regions.
International security institutions are beginning to take note. The UN Security Council has discussed climate change as a global peace and security issue. In 2022, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia joined new UN climate-security initiatives aimed at building resilience in fragile zones.
Gulf states, meanwhile, see climate security as both a challenge and an opportunity. Through investments in renewable energy, desalination, and food technology, they are seeking to reduce vulnerability and assert leadership in climate diplomacy.
Addressing climate security in MENA requires integrated action. Water management must move from emergency responses to long-term planning, including regional cooperation on transboundary resources. Agricultural systems need to shift toward efficient irrigation, drought-resistant crops, and local food value chains. Energy diversification -- especially solar and wind -- can reduce pressure on water-intensive power systems. Social safety nets and early-warning systems can help prevent climate-related displacement and instability.
Regional cooperation is key. Shared problems -- from drought to migration -- cannot be solved by national policies alone. The challenge is to transform climate risks into a driver for collaboration rather than conflict.
Climate change is redrawing the strategic map of the Middle East and North Africa. What was once a distant environmental issue is now a central factor in regional stability and national security. Managing this challenge will require more than technological fixes -- it demands a new mindset, one that treats water, food, energy, and peace as interconnected elements of a single system.
If the region succeeds, it could become a global model for climate resilience. If it fails, the heat will not stay contained -- its consequences will ripple far beyond its borders.