Investors in Nigerian Exchange (NGX)-listed equities have seen their paper wealth swell by roughly N35.62 trillion between January 2025 and the close of trading on 24 October 2025, as the NGX All-Share Index and market capitalisation surged to fresh highs. The NGX's reported market capitalisation moved from N63.166 trillion at the start of January to N98.792 trillion at the close of trading on 24 October 2025, this represented a Year-to-date (YtD) jump of about 51.22 per cent in under ten months.
That rise is significantly stronger than the comparable calendar period last year, October 2024 the NGX equities capitalisation was N60.261 trillion with thin ASI at 99.189 points, meaning 2025's ten-month advance has outpaced the same stretch a year earlier by a wide margin.
Market momentum
For much of the first half of 2025 the market displayed modest but steady gains. Trading data revealed that by end-June the NGX All-Share Index closed around 119,978.57 points, representing a year-to-date advance of about 16.6 per cent. The exchange's total market capitalisation also rose during H1, reaching about N126.73 trillion, up 16 per cent from the January starting point. Several corporate actions, improved earnings and policy signals set a favourable backdrop during this phase.
As the year progressed, the market's advance gathered pace. In July, for example, data showed the market entered a sharper upswing. In just seven months to July 2025, Nigeria recorded N6 trillion worth of equities transactions, the highest since 2007. The August period saw the market cap move above the N90 trillion mark. Market watchers observed that in mid-August the market capitalisation had lifted to about N92.2 trillion, reflecting increased trading volumes and investor rotation. By late October the market reached a new all-time high, crossing the N100 trillion mark.
The drivers
There is rarely a single cause that propelled the bourse's rally; the NGX's 2025 advance stems from a confluence of structural reforms, policy signals, corporate actions and market-technical factors. Below are the most important:
One important theme has been strengthening investor confidence, both domestic and foreign. Analysts have also predicted portfolio inflows to remain strong, supported by high domestic yields, FX reforms, and improving macroeconomic stability. This would give investors a window of opportunity to benefit from elevated fixed-income returns and potential capital gains in Nigerian equities.
Supporting that, data show that foreign portfolio inflows into Nigeria (across equity, bond and money-market instruments) were already significant in the first half of 2025. Reports suggest that "In the first half (H1) of 2025, FPI inflows reached US$8.05 billion. At the current run rate, inflows could reach US$16.08 billion by year-end."
Additionally, domestic investor activity has been strong. For example, in March 2025 the NGX reported total transaction value for equities at N2.23 trillion, up 44.2 per cent year-on-year. Foreign investors accounted for about N814 billion in that quarter; domestic investors for roughly N1.42 trillion.
Policy and institutional reforms also played a role. The macro-economic backdrop showed signs of adjustment: the economy's rebased GDP data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated growth of 3.13 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2025 under the new 2019-base series.
Meanwhile, in the capital-market space, regulatory signals and efforts to deepen listings, improve transparency and promote investor participation have helped improve sentiment.
Moreover investors have become more confident as the easing inflation trajectory shows forward growth signals. Although inflation remained elevated compared with advanced-economy norms, headline inflation in 2025 showed signs of moderation from 2024 peaks..
In the corporate domain, listings, capital-raisings and recapitalisations of large financial sector firms added to investor interest and liquidity. Additionally, the Investments and Securities Act (ISA) 2025 which has been hailed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a modernization that strengthens governance and investor protection also played a role.
SEC leadership said the ISA is already helping improve transparency and investor sentiment. Director-General of the SEC, Emomotimi Agama, has emphasised that the new law "has introduced key reforms aimed at fostering a more transparent and efficient market" and that those reforms are supporting investor confidence.
Coordinated macro reforms, FX structure and credibility gains, the Central Bank's FX Code, the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) and other FX-market steps have reduced uncertainty in cross-border flows and helped attract portfolio capital. CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso has repeatedly framed these interventions as central to restoring confidence.
Two sides to the story
Despite the positive trend, the market did not rise uniformly. There were periods of pull-back and consolidation. For instance, foreign portfolio investors sold off equities worth N576.09 billion between January and June 2025, compared with N311.41 billion in the same period of 2024, an 84.97 per cent increase in foreign investor divestment. In April 2025 the flow of foreign portfolio investment into equities dropped by 92.39 per cent compared to March, as inflows fell to N26.64 billion.
These episodes suggest that while the broader trend was upward, investor sentiment remained somewhat sensitive to global conditions, net foreign flows and macro-risk factors. Moreover, delisting activity has trimmed market value: between January and March 2025, the NGX recorded a net market-capitalisation loss of N25.27 billion due to four delistings.
The domestic vs foreign participation
Domestic activity has frequently accounted for the bulk of volume, which has helped stabilise the market even when foreign flows were volatile. The June 2025 data show foreign portfolio transactions of N139.31 billion, of which inflows into equities were N72.82 billion, while domestic investor participation stood at N639.34 billion.
At the same time, foreign interest remains significant and influential. Global-capital flows to Nigeria's capital markets were strong overall: for example, in Q1 2025 portfolio investment alone accounted for US$5.2 billion, representing 92.3 per cent of total capital importation, although much of that flowed into money-market instruments rather than equities.
What could slow things down
Despite the robust rally currently being experienced, the market remains sensitive to a set of identifiable risks including Macro volatility (inflation and interest rates). Aggressive rate moves would push institutional money back into short-term instruments. The market's advance in 2025 happened even as headline inflation stayed elevated; a sudden spike would be a brake.
Analysts note that "In terms of risk, investors should keep an eye on external headwinds (global risk aversion, tighter global rates), domestic macro uncertainties (inflation, interest-rate moves, FX stability) and potential corporate governance lapses. The foreign investor exits seen in early 2025 signal that the market can reverse quickly if sentiment falters."
Their position emphasises that a single policy misstep from the government could reverse the positive trend. This is why market participants and NGX leadership have repeatedly urged continuation of reform discipline. "Any reversal, or perceived politicisation of macro policy, would be punished."
What this means going forward
For investors, the sharp rise in market capitalisation implies enhanced wealth creation opportunities, but also a need for measured caution. Markets that rise on policy signals and improved macro-fundamentals must still deliver on earnings, corporate governance and liquidity. The fact that domestic investors constitute a large share of market activity is a positive sign for resilience, but reliance on a few large-cap stocks can increase concentration risk.
From a policy perspective, the market's strong performance reinforces the value of structural reforms, transparency, regulatory coherence and stable macroeconomic conditions. But sustaining the momentum will require continuing delivery on reforms, broadening market participation, supporting new listings and deepening capital markets beyond the largest names.
The week under review
Meanwhile, data from the previous trading week showed that the market added N4.23trn in one week as stocks extended their rally. The All-Share Index to a new 52-week high of 155,645.05 points. The development represents a 4.48 per cent week-on-week appreciation amid strong third-quarter earnings and renewed investor interest in large-cap stocks.
Investors traded a total turnover of 3.695 billion shares worth N129.889 billion in 148,077 deals, higher than 2.422 billion shares valued at N76.618 billion exchanged in the previous week across 126,591 deals. The Financial Services Industry led activity by volume, accounting for 2.362 billion shares worth N54.38 billion in 63,561 deals. This represented 63.91 per cent and 41.87 per cent of the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively. The Oil and Gas Industry followed with 551.52 million shares worth N19.21 billion in 10,539 deals, while the Consumer Goods Industry recorded 180.90 million shares valued at N13.28 billion in 19,428 deals.
Trading in the top three equities were Fidelity Bank Plc, Japaul Gold and Ventures Plc, and Access Holdings Plc which accounted for 1.808 billion shares worth N27.89 billion in 10,817 deals. These represented 48.94 per cent and 21.47 per cent of the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.
Sectoral performance was largely positive. The NGX Industrial Goods Index advanced by 10.61 per cent, followed by the Oil and Gas Index, which rose by 9.13 per cent. The Consumer Goods and Commodities Indices appreciated by 3.94 per cent and 4.87 per cent, respectively.
However, the NGX Banking Index declined by 1.35 per cent, while the Insurance Index fell 1.10 per cent, reflecting profit-taking and cautious repositioning by investors.
Top-performing stocks for the week included Aso Savings and Loans Plc, which gained 32.00 per cent following the lifting of its trading suspension, Aradel Holdings Plc (+25.20 per cent), Eunisell Interlinked Plc (+19.73 per cent), PZ Cussons Nigeria Plc (+14.19 per cent), and NASCON Allied Industries Plc (+12.77 per cent). Others were BUA Cement Plc (+12.50 per cent), Dangote Cement Plc (+10.83 per cent), and MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (+8.56 per cent).
On the other hand, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank Plc led the losers' chart, shedding 10.89 per cent, followed by Juli Plc (-9.94 per cent), RT Briscoe Plc (-9.84 per cent), John Holt Plc (-9.72 per cent), and Multiverse Mining and Exploration Plc (-9.71 per cent).
Cowry Research noted in its market commentary that "the rally was fueled by renewed buying interest in mid- and large-cap blue-chip stocks as well as strategic sectoral reallocation by investors on the back of strong fundamentals." It added that impressive nine-month earnings scorecards from quoted companies continued to "rouse positive sentiments across counters."
They projected that the positive momentum may persist as investors continue to react to corporate results and dividend announcements.
Despite the upbeat performance, analysts also cautioned that bouts of profit-taking and portfolio adjustments could trigger mild volatility, particularly in the banking space. However, they maintained that equities with strong fundamentals and sustainable earnings growth remain attractive for medium- to long-term investors.