Warrior Met Coal has captured market attention with a dramatic share price increase, fueled by exceptional quarterly performance and significant advancements at its flagship Blue Creek development. The mining company's latest results have shattered expectations, signaling robust momentum for its expansion strategy.
Defying market forecasts, Warrior Met Coal reported impressive third-quarter 2025 earnings. Rather than the anticipated loss of $0.21 per share, the company delivered a profit of $0.70 per share -- representing a positive surprise of $0.91. Revenue climbed to $328.59 million, surpassing estimates by over $26 million. This performance contributed to a net income of $36.6 million, continuing the company's upward trajectory.
Central to Warrior Met Coal's growth narrative is the Blue Creek longwall project, which remains on track for commissioning in early 2026. The development is progressing ahead of schedule while maintaining its original budget. This strategic initiative promises to transform the company's operational profile:
In response to its strong operational performance, Warrior Met Coal has raised its full-year 2025 guidance. The company now anticipates coal sales between 9.2 and 9.6 million short tons. Production expectations have been lifted to 9.4-9.8 million short tons -- representing a 10% increase over previous estimates.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Warrior Met Coal?
The company's shares have demonstrated remarkable strength across multiple timeframes: gaining 20.3% over one month, 31.2% over 90 days, and 126% over three years. However, this appreciation has resulted in a price-to-earnings ratio of 115.7, substantially exceeding the industry average of 21.4 and raising questions about sustainability.
On November 24, UBS responded to the quarterly results by increasing its price target from $75 to $80 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, citing improved cost projections. Although many brokerage firms continue to recommend the stock as "Outperform," the elevated valuation multiple suggests significant future growth may already be reflected in the current share price.
To support its expansion initiatives, Warrior Met Coal has bolstered its financial position by increasing its credit facility by $27 million to $143 million total, while extending the maturity to August 2030. With institutional investors holding 92.28% of shares, the company demonstrates strong backing from sophisticated market participants who appear confident in its long-term prospects.
The central question for investors now revolves around whether Warrior Met Coal can maintain its current momentum or faces a potential correction following its substantial appreciation.