By Stephen Beech
Air travel will become more of a bumpy ride - due to global warming, warns new research.
The atmosphere will become more turbulent in future decades as climate change makes the air less stable, say scientists.
The new University of Reading research built on a previous study that found potentially catastrophic turbulence increased as the world warmed over the past 40 years.
Researchers used 26 of the latest global climate models to study how warming temperatures affect jet streams at typical aircraft cruising altitudes of around 35,000 feet.
The research team explained that jet streams are the fast-moving air currents that flow around the planet at high altitude.
As they change due to climate change, they create stronger wind shear - differences in wind speed at different heights.
The new study, published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, found wind shear will increase by 16% to 27% and the atmosphere will become 10% to 20% less stable from 2015 to 2100.
Lead author Joana Medeiros, a doctoral researcher at the University of Reading, said: "Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clear-air turbulence - the invisible, sudden jolts that can shake aircraft without warning.
"Unlike turbulence caused by storms, clear-air turbulence cannot be seen on radar, making it difficult for pilots to avoid."
Co-author Professor Paul Williams said: "Recent years have seen severe turbulence incidents causing serious injuries and, in some tragic cases, fatalities."
He added: "Pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights, but airlines will also need new technology to spot turbulence before it hits, protecting passengers as skies become more chaotic."
The research examined both moderate and high-emission scenarios, with the worst effects occurring for the highest greenhouse gas emissions.
The findings show the problem will affect both northern and southern hemispheres.
The previous Reading study showed that clear-air turbulence - which is invisible and hazardous to aircraft - strengthened as the world warmed from 1979 to 2020.
And transatlantic flights were among the worst affected, say scientists.
Turbulence costs airlines tens of millions of pounds annually as every additional minute spent flying through turbulent air increases wear and tear on aircraft as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight crew, according to The Research Applications Laboratory.
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